windaHow inspection evidence updates the Bayesian damage factor
Prior, posterior, confidence. What those 3 numbers actually mean when they sit next to a corrosion rate.
1 min read
A damage factor is a bet about the future state of a component. A Bayesian damage factor is the same bet, stated honestly: here is what we believed before the reading (the prior), here is what we believe after it (the posterior), and here is how sure we are (the confidence).
The practical consequence: 2 circuits with the same nominal corrosion rate can rank very differently, because one number is well-evidenced and the other is a guess wearing a decimal point.
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